Which number tells you what a Southlake home is worth this fall? The one from September closings or the one on the city's tax roll?
They point in opposite directions. In September 2026, Southlake's median single-family sale price was $1,725,000, according to the NTREIS monthly MLS summary produced by the Texas Real Estate Research Center at Texas A&M. That's 43.8% above September 2025. In the same weeks, the City of Southlake adopted a budget that records the first decline in the city's appraised value in at least thirty years.
Both numbers are accurate, but they don't describe the same moment. The sales report covers what changed hands over a few weeks. The tax roll reflects a valuation the Tarrant Appraisal District chose not to update in 2026. A buyer or seller in Southlake right now is pricing a home between these two clocks, and TAD's next residential reappraisal is scheduled for 2027.
The September median is reading a small sample
Start with the headline figure, because it moves faster than the market does. Here are Southlake's single-family rows from four consecutive NTREIS reports:
| Month (2026) | Closed sales | Median price | Median $/sq ft | Sold-to-list | Months of inventory |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| June | 59 | $1,462,500 | $379.46 | 96.8% | 4.2 |
| July | 30 | $1,405,000 | $352.84 | 96.6% | 4.4 |
| August | 23 | $1,375,000 | $347.57 | 94.3% | 4.0 |
| September | 36 | $1,725,000 | $400.63 | 95.2% | 3.5 |
The median slipped for three straight months, then rose $350,000 in one. With only 23 to 59 closings a month, a handful of larger homes closing in the same window can move the middle of the distribution a long way. The city-level report doesn't publish individual sale prices, so it can't show which homes drove September. What it does show is that a single month is a thin base for any conclusion.
The year-over-year comparison is thinner still. The September 2025 figure it's measured against came from just 18 sales. MetroTex also notes that current-month volume is projected until every sale has been entered in the MLS, so September's count may still change.
The firmer signals sit in the quieter columns
Three September 2026 measures hold up better than the median. That's because they don't depend on which homes happened to close:
- Negotiating room shrank. Sellers got 95.2% of list price, up from 91.7% in September 2025.
- Supply tightened. Active listings fell from 128 to 115, while new listings held steady at 37.
- Homes sold faster. Median days on market dropped from 57 to 49, and months of inventory went from 4.0 to 3.5.
Price per square foot is less sensitive to home size than the median. It rose from $329.88 to $400.63 year over year. Still, it was $379.46 back in June, so the late-summer dip shows up there too. Taken together, the data shows a market that firmed up this fall, with less discounting and a shorter shelf life. It doesn't show a 44% repricing.
For context, Southlake had more supply than its neighbors in September 2026. Its 3.5 months of inventory compared with 2.9 in Colleyville, 2.8 in Keller and 2.4 in Grapevine. Southlake buyers still have a bit more inventory to choose from than buyers one town over.
The tax roll is running on a different calendar
While sale prices bounced around, the appraisal roll stood mostly still. That was a deliberate choice. Tarrant Appraisal District reappraises residential property every other year, in odd-numbered years. As the Fort Worth Report explained, TAD did not reappraise homes in 2026, so values "remained frozen at a higher, previous market value." The outlet reported that about 195,000 Tarrant County homeowners would likely have gotten lower tax bills this year if homes had been reappraised, because the housing market had dipped.
On September 8, 2026, the TAD board voted 5-4 to keep that schedule and reappraise residential property in 2027. The same report said more than 272,000 homeowners countywide protested their values in 2026. The 2026 notices went out April 17, with a May 15 protest deadline, so that window has closed.
So the value printed on a Southlake tax statement this year is an older number. It wasn't adjusted down when the market softened, and it hasn't been adjusted up for this fall's firmer closings.
Southlake's own roll fell anyway, and the city cut its rate
Even with residential values frozen, the city's total base shrank. The FY 2027 budget reports total appraised value down 0.7% to $15.4 billion. Taxable value after exemptions fell 0.5% to $12.3 billion, a figure that includes the city's TIRZ. New construction added about $110.4 million, roughly 85% of it residential. The budget doesn't tie the decline to a single cause, and it doesn't break out a residential-only trend.
A falling base flips the usual rate math, and the budget lays out exactly how:
"Taxable value and the no-new-revenue rate move in opposite directions: when values rise the rate falls, when values hold flat it is unchanged, and when values fall the rate rises."
That put Southlake's FY 2027 no-new-revenue rate at $0.301616 per $100 of value, above the current rate. The voter-approval rate was $0.323173. On September 15, 2026, the City Council voted 7-0 to adopt $0.290, half a cent below FY 2026's $0.295. Of that, $0.235 goes to the general fund and $0.055 to debt service. Community Impact covered the adopted budget, including staff raises and cuts.
Because the adopted rate sits below the no-new-revenue rate, the city will collect less from the same properties than it did last year. Neighboring cities facing the same pressure have gone the other way. The Fort Worth Report noted that Colleyville was considering a 13% tax increase to offset lower valuations.
The city rate is only one line on a Southlake tax bill. Carroll ISD's adopted 2026-27 rate, for example, is $0.9269 per $100.
What the two clocks mean for a move this winter
The practical friction is timing. A seller pricing a home this fall is working from sale data that just ticked up, measured against a tax value set before the summer dip. A buyer modeling carrying costs is looking at a 2026 tax figure that reflects a frozen valuation and a city rate that went down. Neither number is wrong. They were set in different years.
The 2027 reappraisal is when TAD will next try to reconcile Southlake's residential values with what homes are actually selling for. Whether that lands closer to June's $1,462,500 median or September's $1,725,000 will depend on the full stretch of sales, not one month. Across July, August and September 2026, Southlake recorded 89 single-family closings. That quarter is a steadier base than any single month inside it.
New supply is also on the way. In August 2026, Southlake council passed a first reading 6-1 for Bear Hollow, a 34-home neighborhood on 20.97 acres, as Community Impact reported. In the FY 2027 budget, new construction already accounts for about $110.4 million of added value, roughly 85% of it residential.
A few direct questions
Did Southlake home values really rise 44% in a year? The September 2026 median rose 43.8% year over year, but that compares 36 sales with 18. Price per square foot rose less, and the median fell each month from June through August. The firmer signals are the higher sold-to-list ratio and the lower inventory.
Why did Southlake's appraised value fall if TAD froze residential values? The city's FY 2027 budget reports the decline but doesn't attribute it to one cause or separate residential from commercial trends.
When does the October data come out? NTREIS monthly reports have been landing about a week into the following month. The September 2026 report was produced October 7.
Is my 2026 tax statement based on this fall's prices? No. TAD skipped residential reappraisal in 2026, so 2026 values reflect the earlier valuation. The next residential reappraisal is scheduled for 2027.
This post is general information, not tax or legal advice. For questions about your own appraisal or tax bill, check with TAD or a qualified tax professional.
If you're trying to figure out where your Southlake home falls between its tax value and what this fall's buyers are paying, The Verrett Team can go through recent comparable sales on your street with you. Start with a home valuation, or contact us and we'll walk through the numbers together.
